Soybean Market Jolted by U.S.-China Trade Standoff
(MENAFN) The intensifying trade standoff between the United States and China has pushed soybeans into the spotlight, adding fresh volatility to global commodity markets already on edge over tit-for-tat economic measures.
The latest flashpoint comes after Beijing tightened restrictions on exports of rare earth elements—critical materials for advanced technologies. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that beginning November 1, Washington will double tariffs on Chinese goods to 100%, while also enforcing export controls on all sensitive software.
Amid this deepening economic rift, Trump accused China of weaponizing agricultural imports. “China is purposefully not buying” American soybeans, he claimed in a recent social media post.
Since Trump took office, China has increasingly diversified its soybean suppliers, leaning heavily on Brazil. However, with Brazilian prices surging, Chinese importers have been reluctant to commit. Industry reports suggest Beijing has yet to lock in significant soybean shipments for December and January, a development raising concerns in the agricultural sector.
Traders say that without near-term supply contracts, China may have to dip into its state soybean reserves to meet demand—adding further strain to already fragile global pricing.
Soybeans have shown moderate price fluctuations this year. After opening 2025 at $10.10 per bushel, prices dropped to $9.70, before recovering to around $10.82.
“Soybeans are a crop with sociopolitical importance in Washington, as farmers played a big role in Trump’s election,” Sadi Kaymaz, an Asia markets expert, told media.
The United States and Brazil dominate the global soybean export market, but China’s domestic supply is insufficient to meet internal demand. According to Kaymaz, China’s massive livestock industry continues to drive strong import needs.
He explained that worsening U.S.-China ties have shifted Beijing’s purchases away from American farmers. “Soybeans have been trading weak this year on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as China almost stopped ordering soybeans from the US,” he said.
“Trump is angry with that, as he said China is being hostile by cutting soybean orders, and he threatened to stop importing cooking oil from China,” Kaymaz added.
Farmers are also facing headwinds from outside trade politics, as rising interest rates and fertilizer costs tighten margins across the agricultural sector.
“Agricultural analysts say that China needs to purchase around 10 million tons of soybeans by the end of the year,” Kaymaz noted.
As the trade war deepens, soybeans are emerging not just as a commodity, but as a proxy battleground in a broader geopolitical conflict—with consequences spreading from Midwest farms to global supply chains.
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